Monday, August 13, 2012

The "new " Age of Cataclysm" and the Art of Baloney Detection.



Let me tell you this. If I buy this book I am in serious problems. 
If I buy this book I'm ready to buy Braco's healing look, Alfred Webre Universal Legislation, Basiago's time and space jumps, and snake oil that cures every known and unknown illness.
If I buy this book I know absolutely nothing about stars and planets.
Now, dear friends, the cataclysm will happen in 2013. Forget abut Mayan Calendars and failed prophesies. Forget about 2012. Next year will be the big one.
The prophets must know how to reschedule. Same can be said of those who never pay their bills. 
After the following exopolitical publicity, let me include Karl Sagan's Art of Baloney Detection. Perhaps you will read it before buying this or any other similar "book".
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THE AGE OF CATACLYSM, prophetic 1974 book, now required reading about predicted impacts of a 2013 brown dwarf star flyby (eBook Download by donation)

Unusual update: ""To give you an idea of the real-world value of this book, on Friday July 27, 2012, a new copy of THE AGE OF CATACLYSM was going for $171.80 on Amazon.com."

INFORMATION & DOWNLOAD

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CARL SAGAN'S BALONEY DETECTION KIT
Based on the book The Demon Haunted World by Carl Sagan
The following are suggested as tools for testing arguments and detecting fallacious or fraudulent arguments:
    • Wherever possible there must be independent confirmation of the facts
    • Encourage substantive debate on the evidence by knowledgeable proponents of all points of view.
    • Arguments from authority carry little weight (in science there are no "authorities").
    • Spin more than one hypothesis - don't simply run with the first idea that caught your fancy.
    • Try not to get overly attached to a hypothesis just because it's yours.
    • Quantify, wherever possible.
    • If there is a chain of argument every link in the chain must work.
    • "Occam's razor" - if there are two hypothesis that explain the data equally well choose the simpler.
    • Ask whether the hypothesis can, at least in principle, be falsified (shown to be false by some unambiguous test). In other words, it is testable? Can others duplicate the experiment and get the same result?
Additional issues are
    • Conduct control experiments - especially "double blind" experiments where the person taking measurements is not aware of the test and control subjects.
    • Check for confounding factors - separate the variables.
Common fallacies of logic and rhetoric
    • Ad hominem - attacking the arguer and not the argument.
    • Argument from "authority".
    • Argument from adverse consequences (putting pressure on the decision maker by pointing out dire consequences of an "unfavourable" decision).
    • Appeal to ignorance (absence of evidence is not evidence of absence).
    • Special pleading (typically referring to god's will).
    • Begging the question (assuming an answer in the way the question is phrased).
    • Observational selection (counting the hits and forgetting the misses).
    • Statistics of small numbers (such as drawing conclusions from inadequate sample sizes).
    • Misunderstanding the nature of statistics (President Eisenhower expressing astonishment and alarm on discovering that fully half of all Americans have below average intelligence!)
    • Inconsistency (e.g. military expenditures based on worst case scenarios but scientific projections on environmental dangers thriftily ignored because they are not "proved").
    • Non sequitur - "it does not follow" - the logic falls down.
    • Post hoc, ergo propter hoc - "it happened after so it was caused by" - confusion of cause and effect.
    • Meaningless question ("what happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object?).
    • Excluded middle - considering only the two extremes in a range of possibilities (making the "other side" look worse than it really is).
    • Short-term v. long-term - a subset of excluded middle ("why pursue fundamental science when we have so huge a budget deficit?").
    • Slippery slope - a subset of excluded middle - unwarranted extrapolation of the effects (give an inch and they will take a mile).
    • Confusion of correlation and causation.
    • Straw man - caricaturing (or stereotyping) a position to make it easier to attack..
    • Suppressed evidence or half-truths.
    • Weasel words - for example, use of euphemisms for war such as "police action" to get around limitations on Presidential powers. "An important art of politicians is to find new names for institutions which under old names have become odious to the public"
Above all - read the book! (Sagan's book, of course,)

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